WTXS31 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 89.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 89.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.7S 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 18.1S 92.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 20.3S 95.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 22.5S 98.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 26.5S 104.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 31.1S 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 89.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1497 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WITH GOOD SPIRALED BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION TO THE MSI, A 060231 GPM 36GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS HAS BEEN INCREASED BASED ON CONCURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PTGW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH OFFSETS THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING INCREASING VWS, TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THOUGH TAU 48. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING VWS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECEASE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS POLEWARD OF 24 DEGREES SOUTH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AT THE LATEST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//