WTXS32 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 63.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 63.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 14.4S 62.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 14.2S 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.3S 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.5S 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.3S 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.8S 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.9S 63.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 62.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED EVEN AS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON THE 052208Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES EAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR. CONCURRENTLY, A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH WILL INFLUENCE THE STORM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RENDERING 22S IN A QUASI-STATIONARY SITUATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE NER WILL EMERGE AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS TC 22S TRANSITIONS BETWEEN TWO DRIVING FORCES, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS BY TAU 96, AFTER ITS EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARDS, THE VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, CAUSING GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, TENTATIVELY LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//