WTXS32 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 61.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 61.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 14.7S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 14.7S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.0S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.5S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.9S 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.3S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.4S 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 61.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WITH SOME SPIRALED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS REAFFIRMED BY A 061107Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS NEGATING THE EFFECTS OF THE MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE STR WEAKENS AND TRACKS TO THE EAST, THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF TC 22S, FORCING A POLEWARD TURN OF THE SYSTEM. AS TC 22S BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH, EXPECT INTENSIFICATION AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, PEAKING TC 22SS INTENSITY TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR BUILDING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS VWS INCREASES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO WANE, EXPECT SOME DECAY IN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME DISPARITY IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE PAST TAU 36 DUE TO THE SHIFT IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //