WTXS32 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 62.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 62.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.9S 62.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.4S 62.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.2S 62.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.9S 62.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.7S 63.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.7S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.8S 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 62.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTRAL CORE WITH DEEP SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 062217Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEPENING CENTRAL CORE THAT IS WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 061800Z SHOWING 45 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5- 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE REGION OF THE QUASI- STATIONARY MOTION IS PREVENTING CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. AS THE NER TAKES OVER STEERING, TC JOALANE WILL TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 96. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. ADDITIONALLY, AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL DEVELOP NEAR TAU 36 DUE TO ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM AND THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS. IN ADDITION, VWS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 27 CELSIUS. THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ALLOW AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHEAST, FORCING TC 22S TO TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK AND SPEED GUIDANCE. IN LIEU OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//