WTXS32 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 64.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 64.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.7S 65.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.0S 66.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 19.3S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 20.4S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 23.7S 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 27.5S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 30.8S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 64.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 624 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A 20 NM EYE. A 081036Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING THE DEEPENED CONVECTION AND PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AFTER TAU 48 AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. TC JOALANE WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST. BEYOND TAU 36, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REDUCED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN NEAR TERM, OVERALL JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//