WTXS32 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 65.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 65.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.3S 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.6S 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.4S 68.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 23.4S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 27.2S 70.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 29.6S 70.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 32.0S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 65.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A VERY SMALL (7NM) EYE FEATURE, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW AND FIMP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE A TRANSFER OF THE STEERING MECHANISM FROM THE NER TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE EAST BY TAU 36. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME INTENSIFICATION DUE TO GOOD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THIS TIME, TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOMING UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF 22 DEGREES SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, INITIATING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//