WTXS32 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 65.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 65.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.3S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.9S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 22.9S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.0S 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 27.9S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 30.2S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 66.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND OVERALL SPIRAL SIGNATURE AS IT TRACKED FURTHER POLEWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON CONCENTRIC AND CONGRUENT DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE A SWITCH IN THE STEERING MECHANISM FROM THE NER TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST BY TAU 24. TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 48, THE TC WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//