WTXS32 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 19.3S 66.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 66.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.9S 67.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 22.8S 67.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.8S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 26.4S 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 29.5S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 33.0S 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 67.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 544 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT DRY AIR WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, INDICATING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. A 101720Z AMSU-B COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT TIGHTLY CURVED LLCC WITH A WEAK REFLECTION OF THE PERSISTENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND FIMP AND REFLECTS NO OVERALL CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS BEING OFFSET BY A POINT SOURCE JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION. TC 22S IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MOVES DOWNSTREAM CREATING A SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. TC JOALANE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS VWS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY (ABOVE 35 KNOTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS NEAR THE 22 DEGREE LATITUDE. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS DISSIPATION, IT WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 22S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//