WTPS32 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 160.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 160.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.6S 161.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.9S 162.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.1S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.1S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.5S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 28.8S 175.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 160.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC SOLO AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 101036Z AMSU-B/ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS THE BANDING FEATURES, AS WELL AS THE POSITION AND THE INTENSITY, OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT, WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN ITS STRENGTH. TC 23P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEYOND THAT, LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VWS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A DEEP MID- LATITUDE TROUGH, WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE WITH TC SOLO COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. WHILE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DUE TO THE LACK OF OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//