WTPS32 PGTW 111400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 162.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 162.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.2S 164.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 22.0S 168.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.9S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 28 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 26.4S 178.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 163.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). AN 111108Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC SOLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 23P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC SOLO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THESE FACTORS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//