WTIO31 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 68.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 68.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.8N 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.2N 67.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.7N 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 21.0N 65.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.5N 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 23.6N 62.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.3N 61.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 68.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 070441Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER CONFIRMS THIS SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED ASCAT SENSOR REVEALS 35KT WINDS IN THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS WHICH IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 01A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED HIGH ANCHORED OVER NORTHWESTERN INDIA. EXPECT MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OF TC 01A AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KTS BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH UNTIL TAU 72, WHEN A SEPARATE STR NEAR DARYACHEH-YE SISTAN LAKE WILL TAKE OVER AS THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. EXPECT TC 01A TO TAKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS WELL AS WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, DUE TO LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//