WTIO31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 65.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 65.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 20.3N 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.1N 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.7N 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 22.5N 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.2N 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.6N 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.9N 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 65.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081710Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, SHALLOW LLCC WITH A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 081621Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS, ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND MICROWAVE IMAGE. TC 01A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES TO A BUILDING STR OVER AFGHANISTAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, TC 01A SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK TO A BIFURCATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING AN UNLIKELY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTWARD-TRACKING GROUP OF GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//