WTIO31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 64.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 64.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.1N 63.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.4N 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.6N 62.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.9N 61.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 22.3N 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.4N 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.0N 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 64.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090218Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, ALBEIT ELONGATED, LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS PROHIBITING FASTER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY THE 090600Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), BASED ON A 090453Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS SHOWING 50 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 51 KNOTS. TC ASHOBAA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER INDIA. TC 01A WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE SLOWING DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHWEST. THROUGH TAU 36, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND A MODERATELY- FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU 36, THE BUILDING STR WILL ADVECT DRY, STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM BEGINNING ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT ACCELERATES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF OMAN. JUST BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF OMAN WHERE THE LLCC WILL BEGIN TO UNRAVEL DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. TC ASHOBAA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH, IN RESPONSE TO A MORE EQUATORWARD EXTENT OF THE BUILDING STR, AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIFURCATED TRACK WHICH LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//