WTIO31 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 61.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 61.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.1N 60.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.1N 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.1N 59.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.1N 57.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.4N 54.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 61.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A DEEPENED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 100400Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL CORE WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION, ALONG WITH A 100613Z SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SHOWED 55 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSETTING THE MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUSTAINING CONVECTION. TC 01A HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEW STR BUILDS IN AND ASSUMES STEERING. EXPECT MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM REACHING THE COAST OF OMAN AND THEN STEADILY WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. TC ASHOBAA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//