WTIO31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 61.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 61.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.9N 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.9N 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.9N 58.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.7N 56.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 61.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING BENEATH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS ELONGATED TO THE WEST DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 101051Z SSMI 85GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. TC ASHOBAA IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEW STR ASSUMES STEERING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEAKENS JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF OMAN. BEYOND TAU 36, TC 01A WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED FRICTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AND ADVECTS DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION; LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZED AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//