WTIO31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 61.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 61.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.5N 60.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.5N 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.7N 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 61.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AND SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 101722Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TC 01A IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC ASHOBAA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC ASHOBAA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF OMAN. DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 OR POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//