WTIO31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 61.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 61.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.5N 60.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.6N 59.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.7N 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 60.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THINNING BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 102304Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01A IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC ASHOBAA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC ASHOBAA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF OMAN. DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 OR POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//