WTIO31 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 21.2N 91.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 91.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 21.7N 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.5N 91.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 22.9N 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 23.1N 89.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 91.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282042Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH ADDITIONAL BANDING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE SSMI IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A COMPACT LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY FIX OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, A TUTT LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST IS ADVECTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (5-10 KNOT) ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE BUT INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS (20-25 KNOT) FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 31 CELSIUS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 02B IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 24 PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN POLEWARD AND THEN WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02B WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 02B WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 281921ZJUL15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT