WTIO31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 21.6N 91.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 91.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.2N 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.7N 90.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.2N 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 91.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. MULTIPLE 291516Z GPM IMAGES SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC AND DEPICTS THE TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS AS ALL REPORTING AGENCIES HAVE RAISED THEIR DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 02B IS CONTINUING TO TRACK ALMOST COMPLETELY POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MINOR STR ANCHORED OVER THE BURMA-THAI BORDER. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY GAIN A WESTERN COMPONENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK PAST TAU 12 AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIMALAYAN HIGH TAKES OVER. EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH DUE TO AN OVERALL CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, AFTER TC 02B BEGINS TO MAKE LAND INTERACTION, STARTING WITH BHOLA ZILA, BY TAU 12, EXPECT ITS RAPID DECAY WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//