WTPA41 PHFO 010251

TCDCP1



HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  46

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

500 PM HST MON AUG 31 2015



EYEWALL CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS

BUT A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND BEEN RESTRICTED TO

THE WEST ALL DAY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 2213 UTC AMSU PASS

SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS THAT

WERE PRESENT SEVERAL HOURS AGO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN

AT 5.5/102 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC...AND 115 KT FROM PHFO. THE UW/CIMSS

ADT ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC CAME IN AT 115 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF

THESE DATA AND THE DEGRADATION IN KILO/S SATELLITE

PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE HAS

BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT. A 2129 UTC ASCAT PASS HELPED REFINE THE WIND

RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHERE RADII WERE LARGER

THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.



KILO HAS REMAINED ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK ALL DAY WITH AN INITIAL

MOTION OF 340/7 KT AS IT MOVES AROUND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE

EAST. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD

TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO AND WILL TURN THE CYCLONE SLOWLY

TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN

TIGHTLY GROUPED THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME

FRAME. THE DIVERGENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TRACKS IS DUE TO

DIFFERING DEPICTIONS BY THE VARIOUS MODELS OF THE STRENGTH AND

ORIENTATION OF THE FORECAST RIDGE DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST

HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF

CONSENSUS...GFEX...WHICH PUTS KILO ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PATH

FOLLOWING ITS THE LEFT TURN AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE KILO

ACROSS THE DATELINE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC THIS EVENING.



VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE RESULTED IN SOME WEAKENING OF

KILO TODAY. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD EASE OVER

THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER SOME NEAR

TERM WEAKENING...KILO SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN BENEATH SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

THUS...THE CURRENT FORECAST DROPS KILO TO 105 KT AT 12 HOURS BUT

GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SHIPS.



THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC

TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED

BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF

DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN

HONOLULU HAWAII.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  01/0300Z 22.6N 179.8W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  01/1200Z 23.4N 179.7E  105 KT 120 MPH

 24H  02/0000Z 24.3N 179.2E  110 KT 125 MPH

 36H  02/1200Z 24.8N 178.5E  110 KT 125 MPH

 48H  03/0000Z 25.0N 178.0E  115 KT 135 MPH

 72H  04/0000Z 24.5N 176.7E  115 KT 135 MPH

 96H  05/0000Z 24.0N 174.5E  120 KT 140 MPH

120H  06/0000Z 23.5N 171.5E  125 KT 145 MPH



$$

FORECASTER KODAMA