WTPA41 PHFO 220856

TCDCP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

1100 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015



MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THE CYCLONE

FEATURES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW

PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINS DISPLACED EAST OF THE CONVECTION.

A U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON /WRS/ AIRCRAFT PROVIDED

CENTER FIXES AND WIND RADII GROUND TRUTH THIS EVENING...AND THE

CENTER WAS DETERMINED TO BE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF WHERE SATELLITE

IMAGERY WOULD LEAD ONE TO PLACE IT. THE AIRCRAFT DETERMINED MAXIMUM

SURFACE WINDS WERE NEAR 26 KT...AND ASSUMING THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY

NOT HAVE BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT

30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



KILO CONTINUES TO TREK STEADILY WESTWARD...SOUTH OF AN EAST TO WEST

ORIENTED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED JUST A COUPLE

HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL

MOTION VECTOR IS 280/14 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IS

EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS... A

WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLOWING IN

FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED. AS THE

CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IT

IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A VERY SLOW

RATE OF FORWARD SPEED. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK HAS ONCE AGAIN

BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SUBTLY AT

FIRST...AND MORE NOTICEABLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN THE FORWARD

MOTION OF THE STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW. THIS REPRESENTS A BLEND OF

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS...WHICH FEATURES THE

GFS AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE...AND HWRF AND GFDL ON THE

RIGHT.



ALTHOUGH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...ANALYZED

AS BEING LESS THAN 5 KT BY UW-CIMSS...AND NEAR 15 KT BY SHIPS...

THE CYCLONE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING VERTICALLY ORGANIZED.

SHIPS GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THAT KILO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE

WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...INSTEAD PEAKING NEAR 60 KT ON DAYS 4 AND

5. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FROM SATURDAY

THROUGH TUESDAY...AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...A

SLOW INTENSIFICATION RATE IS STILL EXPECTED. WHILE THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE

SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CURRENT DIFFICULTIES...IT STILL ANTICIPATES

THAT KILO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN

CONSENSUS...WHICH FEATURES HWRF AND GFDL ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND

SHIPS/LGEM ON THE LOW SIDE.



THE U.S. 53RD WRS WILL CONDUCT ANOTHER FLIGHT INTO KILO SATURDAY

MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL

FURTHER NOTICE...PROVIDING CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO KILO/S STRUCTURE

AND INTENSITY. WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED IN THE ATLANTIC...A

TRUNCATED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION WILL BE CONDUCTED BY THE

WRS AFTER DEPARTING KILO SATURDAY MORNING...IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE

STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  22/0900Z 13.3N 156.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  22/1800Z 14.0N 159.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  23/0600Z 14.9N 161.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  23/1800Z 15.8N 163.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  24/0600Z 16.6N 164.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  25/0600Z 18.0N 165.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  26/0600Z 19.5N 164.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  27/0600Z 20.5N 163.0W   75 KT  85 MPH



$$



FORECASTER BIRCHARD