WTPA41 PHFO 221453 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015 500 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...DESPITE BEING IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AND OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. ALTHOUGH KILO IS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH PROLIFIC LIGHTNING...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND A 1238Z AMSU PASS INDICATE THAT A POORLY ORGANIZED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LIKELY EXISTS...AND REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. LATEST DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNSURPRISINGLY LOW...RANGING FROM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY TO T1.5/25 KT...AND THESE SUPPORT LOWERING THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 25 KT. KILO CONTINUES TO TREK STEADILY WESTWARD...STEERED BY AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 270/14 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...THUS INDUCING A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5...STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...ANALYZED AS BEING LESS THAN 5 KT BY UW-CIMSS...AND NEAR 10 KT BY SHIPS... THE CYCLONE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY INCLINATION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THIS COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL INCREASE...PER RAMMB-CIRA ANALYSES. LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHEAR PROFILE THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND NOW INDICATES 10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL OCCUR FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH GREATER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS SHEAR DECREASES. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL BELOW HWRF AND GFDL GUIDANCE...IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND ANTICIPATES KILO BECOMING A HURRICANE BY DAY 5. ALL OF THIS MAY BE IRRELEVANT IF KILO IS UNABLE TO EFFECTIVELY ORGANIZE IN THE SHORT TERM...AND DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. WHILE SURPRISING...IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WILL CONDUCT ANOTHER MISSION INTO KILO LATER THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE IF NEEDED. AFTER DEPARTING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING...THE AIRCRAFT CREW WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION TO ITS NORTHWEST...IN ORDER TO PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA TO FORECASTERS AND NUMERICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.8N 158.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.5N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.6N 163.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.4N 164.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 165.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.6N 164.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 20.0N 164.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.6N 163.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD