WTPA41 PHFO 231459 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015 500 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2015 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS KILO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 1.5 FROM JTWC AND SAB...AND 2.5 FROM PHFO. THE LATEST ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM A 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT LAST EVENING...AND A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. THE CENTER LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO POOR APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE WERE ALSO NO RECENT DEFINITIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES AVAILABLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/13. KILO CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IN HAWAII. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR LONGITUDE 164W...IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS A RESULT...KILO WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING WHICH WOULD CAUSE IT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS ALSO FORECAST DURING DAYS 3-4... DUE IN PART TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVATURE AT THE LONGER TIME RANGE APPEARS TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT KILO MAY NOT TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...FOLLOWED BY A BLEND OF THE HWRF/GFDL MODEL OUTPUT FOR THE PERIOD DURING DAYS 3-5. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE 8 KT FROM 285 DEGREES BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND 11 KT FROM 300 DEGREES BASED ON THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...ASSUMING KILO CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...SLOW INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY. THIS IS MOST IN LINE WITH SHIPS...SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS APPEAR TO PREDICT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM BY DAYS 4-5. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO INCREASE THE LONG TERM INTENSITY GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITIONS. AN AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KILO LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A VIABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN PULSING NEAR AN APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KILO MAY HAVE BEEN SLOWING AND UNDERGOING REORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO THESE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE USEFUL FOR DETERMINING THE LOCATION... INTENSITY AND SIZE OF KILO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.2N 163.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.5N 164.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.1N 165.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 166.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.9N 166.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.9N 165.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.7N 164.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.6N 164.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON