WTPA41 PHFO 242059

TCDCP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015



THE CENTER OF KILO APPEARS TO BE UNDER A RECENT BURST OF DEEP

CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS INTENSITY ESTIMATES

RANGED FROM 2.0...30 KT...FROM PHFO...AND 2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB

AND JTWC. BASED ON ITS CURRENT APPEARANCE WE HAVE KEPT KILO AS A 30

KT DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340 AT 6 KT. KILO IS TRACKING AROUND

THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO

THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE

ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND KILO WILL BE LEFT IN A LARGE

AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT DAYS 2 AND 3. AT DAYS 4 AND

5...DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NORTH OF

KILO...FORCING THE SYSTEM BACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT

FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LIES

BETWEEN THE HWRF AND GFDL ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK AND THE

GLOBAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH LIE TO THE LEFT.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND RELAXING SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. KILO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM

TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 96 HOURS WHEN KILO IS

FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE

INTENSIFICATION TREND MAY BE ARRESTED AS KILO BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE

MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE LATEST FORECAST FOLLOWS DOWN THE MIDDLE

OF MOST GUIDANCE AND IS LOWER THAN HWFI AND GFDI BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER

THAN SHIPS AND AVNI.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  24/2100Z 16.7N 167.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  25/0600Z 17.5N 168.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  25/1800Z 18.3N 168.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  26/0600Z 19.0N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  26/1800Z 19.4N 168.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  27/1800Z 19.8N 169.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  28/1800Z 20.2N 170.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  29/1800Z 20.5N 171.9W   65 KT  75 MPH



$$

FORECASTER BURKE