WTPA41 PHFO 251502

TCDCP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015



KILO HAS BEEN VERY POORLY ORGANIZED ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY MOST OF TONIGHT. THE COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY UNTIL

JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE NEW

CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO NEAR THE APPARENT LLCC

AS THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS BEING SENT. EVEN THOUGH THESE

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO THE LLCC NOW...THERE IS NO SIGN OF

IMPROVING OUTFLOW...SO IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT KILO IS UNDERGOING

RAPID CHANGES AT THE MOMENT. THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATES FOR

ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE ABOUT 015 DEGREES AT 10-12 KT.

THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES WERE 1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...JTWC AND PHFO. THE LATEST

UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS AN UNREALISTIC 2.8/41 KT. BASED ON THE

CURRENT DVORAK FIXES...WE WILL MAINTAIN KILO AS A 25 KT TROPICAL

DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360 DEGREES/03 KT. THIS SLOW FORWARD

MOTION IS DUE TO KILO MOVING INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT TO THE

WEST OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WEAK STEERING WILL LIKELY

BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS...MOST OF

THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A NEW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD

NORTH OF KILO. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TRACKING

TOWARD THE WEST...OR POSSIBLY THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AT A GRADUALLY

INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. AS A RESULT OF

THIS RECONFIGURATION OF THE FUTURE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE

VICINITY OF KILO...THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A

SHARP TURN AND AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST

STARTING IN 36 HOURS. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE SECOND ROUND OF

GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS MOTION...THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN

NUDGED TOWARD THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...WHICH ARE

STILL THE GFDL AND HWRF. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE

CONSENSUS MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR LATEST FORECAST

TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE

LATEST TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE DATA MIGHT FINALLY VERIFY THE OUTPUT

FROM THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS

THE PREVIOUS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION STARTING

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS OVER SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29C. THE MOST RECENT ANALYSIS FROM

CIRA ALSO SHOWS AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE TRACK. THE SHIPS

OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RELAX

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES KILO

WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 36 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW

INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 5. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS

CLOSELY THE SHIPS AND ICON GUIDANCE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  25/1500Z 18.5N 167.3W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  26/0000Z 18.7N 167.4W   25 KT  30 MPH

 24H  26/1200Z 18.8N 167.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  27/0000Z 18.8N 167.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  27/1200Z 18.7N 168.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  28/1200Z 18.5N 169.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  29/1200Z 18.4N 171.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  30/1200Z 18.3N 174.5W   55 KT  65 MPH



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON