WTPA41 PHFO 252056

TCDCP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

1100 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015



KILO REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE ASSUMED

LLCC...SO WE SHALL SEE IF THIS HAS ANY APPRECIABLE EFFECT ON THE

SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR AWHILE. FOR NOW...SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 1.5 FROM PHFO AND JTWC...AND 2.0 FROM

SAB...SO WE WILL RETAIN A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.



KILO NOW APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY. VERY LITTLE MOTION...

PERHAPS A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT...IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS

KILO IS WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS INSIST

THAT KILO WILL START TO TAKE A SLOW U-TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE

12 TO 36 HOUR TIME FRAME AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO

BUILD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IN THE LONGER RANGE...

THIS MID LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER WEST...ALLOWING KILO

TO RESUME A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 4.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...KILO MAY START TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTH OF

THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO

THE SOUTH AT ALL TIME STEPS EXCEPT AT TAU 120. THIS IS STILL TO THE

NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH

MORE OF AN ADDITIONAL SHIFT SOUTH IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TO

REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...ONCE AGAIN...FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND.



DESPITE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST

TRACK...KILO IS DEALING WITH NOT ONLY ITS OWN LOW-LEVEL

DISORGANIZATION BUT ALSO 10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR FROM A

SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 19N 171W. THIS SHEAR IS

EXPECTED TO RELAX AS KILO BEGINS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AND

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED. STARTING IN ABOUT 48

HOURS...THE GFS SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH NORTHWEST OF KILO STARTING TO

IMPART WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM...BUT OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A

WEAKER TROUGH AND LESS SHEAR. EVEN WITH THE SHEAR...THE SHIPS

GUIDANCE CONTINUES A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THIS PERIOD

WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE ASSUMING KILO CAN FINALLY CONSOLIDATE

DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST

IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE SHEAR IS INDEED WEAKER THAN

EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  25/2100Z 18.5N 167.2W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  26/0600Z 18.6N 167.2W   25 KT  30 MPH

 24H  26/1800Z 18.6N 167.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  27/0600Z 18.3N 167.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  27/1800Z 17.9N 168.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  28/1800Z 17.5N 171.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  29/1800Z 17.8N 173.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  30/1800Z 18.5N 175.0W   60 KT  70 MPH



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD