WTPA41 PHFO 260304

TCDCP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

500 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2015



DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KILO REMAINS RATHER RAGGED...BUT

MORE OF THE LOW CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER ARE TUCKED UNDERNEATH HIGH CLOUDS NOW WHICH

SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS ABATING. THIS AGREES

WITH THE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED

FROM 2.0 FROM SAB AND JTWC TO 2.5 FROM PHFO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

HAS BEEN RAISED TO 30 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT REMAINS VERY SLOW...

ESTIMATED TO BE 270/2. KILO IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING

CURRENTS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS WITH THE IDEA THAT A

RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE

CYCLONE...FORCING KILO ON A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT

12 HOURS OR SO WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE

CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST

COUPLE OF CYCLES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL TRACK SOUTHWARD TO

BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER WEST AND

AWAY FROM KILO BETWEEN DAY 2 AND DAY 3...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE

CYCLONE TO TRACK WESTWARD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD KILO IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST

AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS TO ITS NORTH.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE. THE POOR LOW LEVEL

STRUCTURE AND NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT THUS

FAR...DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR

29C. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX IN THE SHORT TERM...SO SLOW

INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ASSUMING THE

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE MODELS

STILL DISAGREE ABOUT HOW MUCH SHEAR WILL BE AFFECTING KILO AFTER

THAT. THE GFS AND THE ASSOCIATED SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES WEAK

TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERSIST

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT OTHER GLOBAL

MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IMPARTING THIS SHEAR TO BE WEAKER

AND FARTHER NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO REFLECT INTENSIFICATION IN THE

LONGER RANGE...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

FOR NOW.



THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENT NECESSITATES ISSUING

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND ONCE AGAIN.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  26/0300Z 18.6N 167.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  26/1200Z 18.5N 167.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  27/0000Z 18.2N 167.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  27/1200Z 17.6N 168.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  28/0000Z 17.1N 169.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  29/0000Z 17.0N 172.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  30/0000Z 17.5N 174.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  31/0000Z 18.7N 176.4W   60 KT  70 MPH



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD