WTPA41 PHFO 261448

TCDCP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

500 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015



A WELL-PLACED 0808 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER 0601 UTC

SSMS MICROWAVE PASS BOTH REVEALED THAT KILO REMAINED POORLY

ORGANIZED AT THAT TIME...WITH THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER /LLCC/ DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA ALSO INDICATED A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SSW

FROM THE LLCC. THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS FROM THE ASCAT PASS

WERE 25 KT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T2.5

OR 35 KT FROM ALL THREE CENTERS...WILL WEIGHT THE ASCAT DATA MOST

HEAVILY AND MAINTAIN KILO AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



THE ASCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA REQUIRED THE 0600 UTC BEST TRACK

POSITION TO BE RE-ANALYZED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...AND IT NOW

APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION HAD NOT

YET BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A VERY

UNCERTAIN 260/04 KT. WITH THE CENTER RELOCATION AND CHANGE IN

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED BACK

TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE

RELIABLE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT KILO WILL BE FORCED

ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A STRONG

MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A

GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST SHOULD FOLLOW BY 48 HOURS. BEYOND 72

HOURS...KILO IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST

AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY TO THE

PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AND IS ALSO

SOMEWHAT SLOWER DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS

TRACK. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE CHALLENGING. KILO WILL BE

MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C WITH AMPLE

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 120 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AND

SHIPS OUTPUT SHOW LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR

OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER

HAND...KILO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...AS HAS BEEN THE

CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN

CONSISTENTLY RUNNING TOO HIGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT KILO WILL

FINALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE

HISTORY OF KILO THUS FAR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW

ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS IS CLOSEST TO

THE LGEM...AND IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE

INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  26/1500Z 18.9N 167.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  27/0000Z 18.6N 168.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  27/1200Z 18.2N 168.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  28/0000Z 17.9N 169.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  28/1200Z 17.7N 170.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  29/1200Z 18.0N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  30/1200Z 19.0N 175.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  31/1200Z 20.5N 177.0W   60 KT  70 MPH



$$

FORECASTER JACOBSON/WROE