WTPA41 PHFO 262045

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

1100 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015



LAST EVENING/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES...AS WELL AS CONVENTIONAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT KILO IS FINALLY BECOMING BETTER

ORGANIZED. THE PREVIOUSLY ELLIPTICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW

MUCH MORE CIRCULAR...AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN

OCCURRING AROUND THE ASSUMED LOW LEVEL CENTER SINCE ABOUT 1000 UTC.

IN ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS

IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 18 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM SAB AND PHFO AND 3.0 FROM JTWC INDICATE THAT

KILO HAS FINALLY REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WE HAVE RAISED

THE INTENSITY TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 200/2...PARTLY

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN DETERMINING PRECISELY WHERE KILO MADE THE

U-TURN. A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE

NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS JUST TO THE

NORTHWEST OF KILO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY 36

TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING KILO TO RESUME A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. AT THE

LONGER TIME RANGES...KILO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST

AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE

SURFACE...AND TURNS TOWARD A WEAK TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER

LEVELS. THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT

48-72 HOURS AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE

LONGER RANGE.



NOW THAT KILO APPEARS TO BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER...A GRADUAL

INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL

SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED

TO IMPART WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS MODEL

CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON HOW MUCH SHEAR WOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR. IT IS

NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING. THE

SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29C...SO

INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN

NUDGED UPWARD...TO BE GENERALLY STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND

IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  26/2100Z 18.3N 167.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  27/0600Z 18.1N 167.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  27/1800Z 17.8N 168.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  28/0600Z 17.5N 169.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  28/1800Z 17.4N 170.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  29/1800Z 17.8N 172.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  30/1800Z 19.0N 175.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  31/1800Z 21.1N 176.5W   70 KT  80 MPH



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD