WTPA41 PHFO 270306

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

500 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015



KILO STARTED TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TODAY WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE

BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER

THE SYSTEM. SOME OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION HAS SINCE FADED...BUT

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REFORM OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS

FINALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THIS GAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO

THE LOCATION...INITIAL INTENSITY...AND INITIAL MOTION OF 225/3. THE

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 3.0...AND SO THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45 KT.



THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED...AND FOR A REFRESHING

CHANGE THE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT FROM

RUN-TO-RUN. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWEST OF KILO

WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTER 24-36 HOURS...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORM

AND THIS WILL ALLOW KILO TO RESUME A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. STARTING

ABOUT DAY 3...KILO WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN

NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVES TOWARD A WEAK TROUGH AT THE MID AND

UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

WITH THIS PACKAGE...WHICH REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS

GUIDANCE.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. KILO IS CURRENTLY

UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR WOULD RESUME

OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING

SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF 29C

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS...KILO MOVES INTO AN

AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SHEAR TO

WEAKEN UNTIL PERHAPS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INTENSIFICATION WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...

BUT FOR SOME REASON A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LEVELING OFF IN

INTENSITY IN THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A SLOW

INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO

THE LAST ADVISORY...LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BUT HIGHER

THAN SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  27/0300Z 17.9N 168.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  27/1200Z 17.7N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  28/0000Z 17.4N 168.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  28/1200Z 17.2N 170.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  29/0000Z 17.2N 171.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  30/0000Z 17.8N 174.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  31/0000Z 19.1N 176.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  01/0000Z 21.4N 177.2W   70 KT  80 MPH



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD