WTPA41 PHFO 282037

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

1100 AM HST FRI AUG 28 2015



KILO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN THIS MORNING

WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.

THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE

3.5...55 KT FROM SAB...4.0...65 KT FROM PHFO...AND 4.5...77 KT FROM

JTWC. WITH THE OVERALL APPEARANCE HAVING CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WE WILL KEEP KILO AS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM

WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08. THERE HAS BEEN NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 120

HOURS WITH MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINING TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD. KILO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE

SHORT TERM AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO

ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 24

TO 36 HOURS AS KILO EXPERIENCES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND BEGINS

TO ROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A GENERAL

NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH CONSENSUS

GUIDANCE. ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER

THE NEXT 5 DAYS.



KILO WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR

29C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND SHIPS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR OF 8 TO 11 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. SHIPS

GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 12

HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR KILO TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE

LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN

NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH LINES UP

WELL WITH ICON AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.



DATA FROM AN EARLIER 0906 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT SOUTHWEST

WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AS THE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED

TO ITS NORTH. WITH THE CENTER OF KILO NOW ABOUT 150 MILES

WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS

BE DISCONTINUED WITH THIS ADVISORY.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  28/2100Z 17.5N 171.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  29/0600Z 17.6N 173.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  29/1800Z 17.8N 174.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  30/0600Z 18.3N 175.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  30/1800Z 19.3N 177.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  31/1800Z 21.9N 178.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  01/1800Z 24.4N 179.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  02/1800Z 26.2N 179.1E   90 KT 105 MPH



$$

FORECASTER BURKE