WTPA41 PHFO 290857

TCDCP1



HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

1100 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2015



CONDITIONS HAVE APPEARED FAVORABLE FOR KILO TO INTENSIFY FOR MOST

OF ITS EXISTENCE...BUT INTENSIFICATION HAS REMAINED SLOW. THE

LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE

4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND 4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. AN AMSU-B

PASS AT 0423 UTC AND AN SSMIS PASS AT 0512 UTC BOTH SHOWED A

COMPLETE EYEWALL...BUT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW AN

EYE. NONETHELESS...I HAVE UPGRADED KILO TO A HURRICANE BASED ON THE

MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE STRONG EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN IN INFRARED

IMAGERY.



WITH NO EYE SHOWING ON THE INFRARED DATA...LOCATING THE CENTER ON

INFRARED IMAGERY IS CHALLENGING...BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES

PROVIDED GOOD CENTER POSITIONS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

TRACK. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KILO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING

WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHWEST END OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A

GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS

AS KILO ROUNDS THE RIDGE. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...A GENERAL NORTHWEST

TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION AS

THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. AFTER 96 HOURS...AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE IS

FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF KILO...RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS

GUIDANCE.



KILO WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28C

WITH AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE

LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY ABOUT 3 KT OF VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS INDICATES THAT THE

SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH 36 HOURS AND WILL REMAIN MODERATE

THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UP

FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH ICON AND SHIPS

GUIDANCE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  29/0900Z 17.8N 173.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  29/1800Z 18.1N 174.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  30/0600Z 18.7N 175.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  30/1800Z 19.5N 177.2W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  31/0600Z 20.7N 178.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  01/0600Z 23.2N 179.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  02/0600Z 24.5N 180.0E  100 KT 115 MPH

120H  03/0600Z 25.0N 178.5E  105 KT 120 MPH



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON