WTPA41 PHFO 300259

TCDCP1



HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  38

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

500 PM HST SAT AUG 29 2015



THE EYE OF KILO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST 6

HOURS. A BANDING FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN

SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL

DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT

6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM JTWC. THE

UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC WAS 122 KT. BASED ON THESE

DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 115 KT FOR THIS

PACKAGE...MAKING KILO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE.



THE LATEST IMAGES SHOW THAT KILO HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN SET TO 290/8

KT. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SHOW KILO GRADUALLY MAKING A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT HEADS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THAT A

RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL TURN IT TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED

TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT ALONG THE SAME GENERAL PATH.



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C BENEATH KILO AND ARE

PROJECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. RAMMB/CIRA

DATA SHOW ELEVATED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES THROUGH 48 HOURS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WAS ABOUT 8 KT ON THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS

AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR KILO TO PEAK AT 130 KT

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING TO 115

KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE IVCN. THE IVCN

GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WEIGHED DOWN BY HWRF WHICH CALLS FOR MUCH

MORE WEAKENING DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ALONG A TRACK

THAT IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MAIN GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTE

THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THESE LEVELS IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE

KILO MAY GO THROUGH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  30/0300Z 18.4N 176.2W  115 KT 135 MPH

 12H  30/1200Z 18.8N 177.1W  125 KT 145 MPH

 24H  31/0000Z 19.9N 178.2W  130 KT 150 MPH

 36H  31/1200Z 21.1N 179.1W  125 KT 145 MPH

 48H  01/0000Z 22.5N 179.7W  120 KT 140 MPH

 72H  02/0000Z 24.2N 179.3E  115 KT 135 MPH

 96H  03/0000Z 24.5N 177.0E  115 KT 135 MPH

120H  04/0000Z 25.0N 174.5E  115 KT 135 MPH



$$

FORECASTER KODAMA