WTPA41 PHFO 302106

TCDCP1



HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  41

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

1100 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2015



THE EYE OF KILO FILLED IN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGES THIS

MORNING INDICATED SOME WARMING. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO

BECOME A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY AT

115 KT...AND THE UW/CIMSS ADT ANALYSIS AT 1800 UTC INDICATED 110 KT.

GIVEN THE PRESENTATION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES...THIS ADVISORY WILL

USE THE ADT VALUE OF 110 KT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.



KILO APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING ITS GRADUAL RIGHT TURN

TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION

FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 310/07 KT. THE OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS

UNCHANGED WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING KILO CONTINUING TOWARD THE

WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...THEN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST AS A RIDGE

BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IS THE IMPACT OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE WHICH

AFFECTS WHEN THE WESTWARD TURN TAKES PLACE. THUS...THE CURRENT

FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE DYNAMICAL

CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST AFTERWARD TO LINE UP CLOSER WITH THE GFEX CONSENSUS.



THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN

ABOVE 29C. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH

HAS COME IN MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO. THE GLOBAL

MODELS SHOW DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR THAT RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE

OF INTENSITY OUTCOMES. SHIPS...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FOR ITS

ENVIRONMENTAL FIELDS...IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH WEAKENING AND TAKES

KILO DOWN TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. MEANWHILE...GFDL

AND GHMI SHOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THE

MIDDLE ROAD AND FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  30/2100Z 19.4N 178.1W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  31/0600Z 20.5N 178.6W  110 KT 125 MPH

 24H  31/1800Z 22.0N 179.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  01/0600Z 23.4N 179.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 48H  01/1800Z 24.3N 179.4E  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  02/1800Z 24.6N 178.6E  105 KT 120 MPH

 96H  03/1800Z 24.5N 177.0E  110 KT 125 MPH

120H  04/1800Z 24.5N 174.5E  110 KT 125 MPH



$$

FORECASTER KODAMA