WTPA41 PHFO 310250

TCDCP1



HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  42

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

500 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2015



KILO HAS HAD A CLOUD-FILLED EYE ALL DAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW

CONTINUES TO BE A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS

STILL VERY HEALTHY IN THE EYEWALL WITH CLOUD TOPS PUSHING ABOVE

THE -80C LEVEL. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0/115 KT FROM

SAB...AND 5.5/102 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ADT

ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 120 KT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE

ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE

HELD AT 110 KT. A 2150 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO REFINE THE INITIAL

WIND RADII.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS 320/08 KT WITH KILO

MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 48 HOURS...A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO

WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST. THE STRENGTH AND

ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE DIFFERS IN THE MODELS WHICH RESULTS IN A

WIDE SPREAD IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST TRACKS. AN INTERESTING

OUTLIER IS THE HWRF WHICH TAKES KILO ON A NORTHWARD TRACK FOLLOWED

BY A 180 DEGREE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE

CURRENT FORECAST OPTS TO FOLLOW THE MAIN GLOBAL MODELS AND NUDGES

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS...OR GFEX.



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 29C ALONG THE FORECAST

TRACK SO KILO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN A VERY HEALTHY CYCLONE.

THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.

SHIPS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN KILO...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVELY AS

THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HWRF SHOWS SOME WEAKENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS

SHIPS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES KILO INTO THE

CATEGORY 5 RANGE BY 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS KILO TO 100 KT IN THE 36 TO

48 HOUR TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THIS IS CLOSE

TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND MAINTAINS KILO AS A MAJOR

HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  31/0300Z 20.0N 178.4W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  31/1200Z 21.0N 178.9W  110 KT 125 MPH

 24H  01/0000Z 22.5N 179.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  01/1200Z 23.5N 179.9W  100 KT 115 MPH

 48H  02/0000Z 24.3N 179.6E  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  03/0000Z 24.7N 178.3E  105 KT 120 MPH

 96H  04/0000Z 24.5N 176.5E  110 KT 125 MPH

120H  05/0000Z 24.0N 174.5E  110 KT 125 MPH



$$

FORECASTER KODAMA