WTPA41 PHFO 310904

TCDCP1



HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  43

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015

1100 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2015



THE EYE OF KILO BECAME RATHER WELL-DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND

SOUTHWEST DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 12 KT

FROM 240 DEGREES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0/115 KT FROM

SAB...PHFO AND JTWC. THE 0600Z UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS NEAR 130

KT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE VALUES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

BEING INCREASED TO 115 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS 330/07 KT. KILO

CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KILO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE KILO TO

SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION SLIGHTLY...WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS RATHER

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. AFTER THAT...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH

AND ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE MODELS DIVERGE AND SHOW

RATHER WIDE SPREAD DIFFERENCES. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY

FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS. NOTE THAT ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER

OF KILO MAY BE CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WITHIN THE NEXT

24 TO 36 HOURS.



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 29C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN KILO AS A RATHER

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LATEST

FORECAST SLIGHTLY NUDGED THE INTENSITIES UP COMPARED WITH THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND

SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST

CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  31/0900Z 20.6N 178.6W  115 KT 135 MPH

 12H  31/1800Z 21.7N 179.1W  115 KT 135 MPH

 24H  01/0600Z 22.9N 179.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

 36H  01/1800Z 23.9N 179.9E  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  02/0600Z 24.5N 179.2E  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  03/0600Z 24.6N 177.5E  110 KT 125 MPH

 96H  04/0600Z 24.5N 176.0E  110 KT 125 MPH

120H  05/0600Z 24.0N 174.0E  110 KT 125 MPH



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON