WTPA41 PHFO 311502 TCDCP1 HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015 500 AM HST MON AUG 31 2015 THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE KILO REMAINS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 18 KT FROM 250 DEGREES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0/115 KT FROM SAB...PHFO AND JTWC. THE 1200Z UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS NEAR 135 KT. WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY 115 KT AGAIN FOR THIS ADVISORY SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT KILO HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. NOTE THAT A PARTIAL 0946Z ASCAT OVER KILO WAS USED TO BETTER DEFINE THE OUTER WIND RADII...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS 330/09 KT...WHICH APPEARS TO INDICATE KILO HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY. THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR THE SYSTEM IS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR 20N 171W. THERE IS ALSO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KILO ALONG 26N. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...KILO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWER AS IT EVENTUALLY TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY STEER KILO TOWARD THE WEST...OR WEST-SOUTHWEST...FROM DAYS 3-5. THROUGH 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A MUCH WIDER SPREAD...SO THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS...WITH SOME NUDGING TOWARD THE TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KILO MAY CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 29C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...ACCORDING TO THE CIRA WEB SITE...ARE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST KILO COULD BE AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODEST WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KILO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 21.5N 179.3W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 22.5N 179.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 23.7N 179.8E 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 24.3N 179.2E 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 24.7N 178.5E 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 24.8N 177.4E 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 24.5N 175.5E 115 KT 135 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 24.0N 173.0E 115 KT 135 MPH $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON