WTPA43 PHFO 020250

TCDCP3



TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015

500 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2015



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IGNACIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE.

DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND LIMITED TO MAINLY

THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. MOST OF THE CLOUD CANOPY NOW CONSISTS OF A

UNIFORM SHIELD OF LAYERED CLOUDS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A

UNANIMOUS 3.5 FROM THE PARTICIPATING SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...AND

HAVE THUS LOWERED THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11. IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO HEAD

NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE

TO THE NORTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. AS IT DOES SO...IT MAY

ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF REDUCED SHEAR AND MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THE WEAKENING TREND TO LEVEL OFF

SOMEWHAT. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO START ON DAY 3

AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEADS FOR THE MID-LATITUDES AND GETS

ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT DAY 4...THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY

AT DAY 5. OUR TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND HAS

BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AT DAY 5. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY

TO START EXPERIENCING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE COOLER WATER

OF THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THE MOST

PART...OUR INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL

MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WHICH ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO

BETTER AGREEMENT. PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST WERE COORDINATED WITH

THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/0300Z 24.6N 155.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  02/1200Z 25.4N 157.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  03/0000Z 26.6N 159.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  03/1200Z 27.8N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  04/0000Z 29.1N 163.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  05/0000Z 33.0N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  06/0000Z 37.0N 166.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  07/0000Z 41.2N 167.3W   50 KT  60 MPH



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD