WTPA43 PHFO 042054

TCDCP3



TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  44

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015

1100 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2015



IGNACIO CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED CORE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY

AS WELL AS SMALL INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE

LLCC...BARELY ENOUGH TO STILL BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE

CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HEADING

355/16. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 3.5 AT SAB AND HFO

AND 4.0 AT JTWC...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. THE

TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING

IGNACIO HEADING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH...MERGING WITH A FRONT AND

MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGHER

LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE

TO THE LEFT AT 48 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL

CONSENSUS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO IGNACIO

SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY FAIRLY WELL AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. BY 48

HOURS...IT WILL BE OVER SUB-20C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND

UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE COOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT

48 HOURS AND LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAY

RENDER IT AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW EVEN BEFORE IT BECOMES

EXTRATROPICAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS PROVIDED BY THE

OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/2100Z 34.1N 164.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  05/0600Z 36.3N 164.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  05/1800Z 39.3N 164.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  06/0600Z 41.3N 164.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  06/1800Z 43.8N 163.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  07/1800Z 47.1N 156.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  08/1800Z 50.1N 141.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  09/1800Z 52.0N 133.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD