WTPA45 PHFO 212054

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015

1100 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015



THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE MORNING SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL

CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE WEST OF A PERSISTENT AREA

OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS MALIA CONTINUES TO BE

IMPACTED BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT

ACCORDING TO SHIPS AND THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS. DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL

AS CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



MALIA IS TURNING TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...AND THE INITIAL

MOTION IS SET AT NORTH AT 14 KT. THIS STEERING FLOW IS BEING

PRODUCED BY A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG 173E AND

A DEEP RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. MALIA WILL MAKE A GRADUAL TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE FORWARD SPEED

OF THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS

INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE AND RUNS ALONG A RELATIVELY TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE GFEX

THROUGH 48 HOURS. GUIDANCE DIVERGES THEREAFTER WHEN MALIA IS

FORECAST TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.



SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. GIVEN THE EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER

THIS MORNING AND THE EXPECTATION THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL

HOLD...THE STRENGTHENING TREND WAS SCALED BACK SLIGHTLY...AND THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE

THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WAS ALSO

SPED UP SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF MALIA

DISSIPATING ABOVE 850 MB...ROUGHLY 5000 FT...BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 48

HOURS AND BEYOND...THE FORECAST WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN

PREDICTION CENTER.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE

PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE

SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED LATER TODAY.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  21/2100Z 27.0N 171.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  22/0600Z 28.5N 171.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  22/1800Z 31.0N 172.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  23/0600Z 34.8N 174.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  23/1800Z 39.6N 179.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  24/1800Z 45.5N 175.0E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  25/1800Z 52.0N 172.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER WROE