WTPA45 PHFO 220256

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015

500 PM HST MON SEP 21 2015



THE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER AND THE

PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST HAS EXPANDED TO OVER

150 MILES UNDER RELENTLESS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND

35 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS AND SHIPS. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT PASS AT 2147

UTC REVEALED A BROAD AREA OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT

AND WITHIN A TRAILING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST

QUADRANT. WHILE DVORAK FINAL T NUMBERS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SIX

HOURS...CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND HFO REMAINED AT

2.5/35 KT...AND JTWC DROPPED TO 2.0/30 KT. GIVEN THE RECENT ASCAT

DATA...WHICH WAS ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE WIND RADII...THE CURRENT

INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.



THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER OF MALIA TOOK AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST TODAY...LEADING TO AN INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES...AT 10 KT. THE STEERING BECAME A BIT

MORE COMPLEX AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BECAME MORE INFLUENCED BY A

DEEP RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OTHER MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE

MOTION IS AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF

THE CYCLONE ALONG 173E. MALIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG A GENERAL

NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION AS IT INCREASINGLY

INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST...AND SOME

ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

GIVEN RECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RUNS ALONG THE LEFT HAND

SIDE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE NEAR THE GFS THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE

FORECAST WAS CONDUCTED IN COLLABORATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION

CENTER /OPC/.



LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH

SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER MALIA UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION. THIS TRANSITION WAS AGAIN SPED UP AS THE GFS AND ECMWF

SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF MALIA OPENING UP ABOVE 850 MB...ROUGHLY

5000 FT...WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE POST TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO

BECOME ABSORBED BY THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 72

HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO ICON AND WAS COORDINATED

WITH OPC AFTER 24 HOURS.



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE

PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE

SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED

35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE

CENTER. THIS TRAILING BAND WILL LIKELY AFFECT MARO REEF AND

POSSIBLY LAYSAN THIS EVENING.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  22/0300Z 27.5N 172.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 29.3N 173.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  23/0000Z 32.8N 175.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  23/1200Z 37.2N 178.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  24/0000Z 40.7N 178.5E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  25/0000Z 46.6N 173.6E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER WROE