WTPA45 PHFO 221441

TCDCP5



TROPICAL STORM MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015

500 AM HST TUE SEP 22 2015



MALIA IS NEARING THE END OF ITS LIFESPAN AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THIS

MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT QUITE DONE WITH IT YET. THE LLCC IS MOVING

FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO FLARE

ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BETWEEN MARO REEF AND

FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. THE 250 NM SPAN BETWEEN THE LLCC AND DEEP

CONVECTION PREVENTS SAB AND PHFO FROM PROVIDING SATELLITE-DERIVED

INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHILE JTWC TURNED IN A 25 KT INTENSITY.

HOWEVER...AN 0851 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 35 KT WINDS 60 TO

150 NM OUT FROM THE LLCC WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS PROMPTS

US TO KEEP INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT...BUT THE SWATH LOCATION

ALLOWS US TO CANCEL ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE

NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.



THE EXPOSED LLCC IS NOW MOVING AT 325/12 KT...REPRESENTING AN

INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SINCE LAST EVENING. OVERALL MOTION

CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY A COMBINATION OF A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF

THIS SYSTEM AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE DATELINE. MALIA IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST

THROUGH ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW...THEN

DISSIPATION AT 72 HOURS.



MALIA WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION...REACHING 45 KT AT 24 HOURS. BY THEN...THE ASSOCIATED

WIND FIELD WILL BE EVEN MORE ASSYMETRIC THAN IT IS

NOW...BRIEFLY ENJOYING THE BENEFITS OF A STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT

BETWEEN MIDLATITUDE FEATURES. BEYOND 12 HOURS...THE TRACK AND

INTENSITY FORECAST WAS CONDUCTED IN COLLABORATION WITH THE OCEAN

PREDICTION CENTER...OPC.



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA

MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO

LISIANSKI ISLAND IS CANCELLED. THE 0851 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT

THE SWATH OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW COMFORTABLY NORTH OF

ALL THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  22/1500Z 28.7N 173.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  23/0000Z 31.8N 175.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

 24H  23/1200Z 36.0N 178.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  24/0000Z 39.7N 178.3E   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  24/1200Z 42.7N 174.9E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER POWELL