WTPA42 PHFO 052106

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP072015

1100 AM HST MON OCT 05 2015



THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...APPEARS TO LIE JUST

WITHIN THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN SATELLITE

ANIMATION...TAKING WRAPPED LOW CLOUD LINES INTO ACCOUNT.

AIRCRAFT FROM THE AIR FORCE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON

CONFIRMED THIS EARLIER...GREATLY INCREASING FIX CONFIDENCE THIS

MORNING. OHO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 10 TO 15 KT OF EASTERLY

SHEAR...ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES...SO THE SLIGHTLY

ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE AND THE WESTWARD TILT OF THE ROTATING CORE

WITH HEIGHT IS UNDERSTANDABLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 2.5...35 KT...FROM JTWC TO 3.0...45

KT...FROM PHFO AND SAB. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS HIGHER AT 3.3...51 KT.

HOWEVER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED EVEN STRONGER

WINDS...NEAR 55 KT...VIA SFMR ON ITS SECOND INBOUND LEG

NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LLCC...ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT OR

JUST ABOVE 60 KT GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. THIS...ALONG

WITH THE REPORTED 984 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...PROMPTS US TO ASSIGN 55

KT AS THE INITIAL OHO INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.



SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS OHO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...WITH INITIAL

MOTION OF 045/06 KT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM

THE EAST PACIFIC IS ERODING AND A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD

TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS BECOMING THE BIGGER

INFLUENCE. TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY CONTINUES THIS MOTION

TREND...TAKING OHO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT

FOR A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR

INITIAL MOTION. THE FINAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS...BUT REMAINS JUST

TO THE LEFT OF...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TIME...THROUGH 36 HOURS...FOR A BIT OF

STRENGTHENING BEFORE MOUNTING SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TAKE THEIR

TOLL. SHIPS AND ICON DEPICT RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER. BOTH DEPICT

PEAK INTENSITY BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. GLOBAL

MODELS ALSO KEEP OHO AS A TROPICAL STORM. HWRF DISAGREES...PEAKING

OHO AT 67 KT AT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE A

BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE...STRENGTHENING OHO TO 60 KT AT 24

HOURS...THEN MAINTAINING OHO AT THAT STRENGTH THROUGH 48

HOURS...FOLLOWED BY RATHER RAPID WEAKENING.



AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON ARE SCHEDULED

TO FLY INTO OHO THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE

NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL COMPLETE ITS SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION

AROUND OHO THIS MORNING IN ORDER FOR THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED IN THE

EARLY AFTERNOON MODEL INITIALIZATION.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/2100Z 14.8N 153.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  06/0600Z 15.4N 153.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  06/1800Z 16.4N 151.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  07/0600Z 18.2N 149.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  07/1800Z 21.3N 147.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  08/1800Z 28.3N 143.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  09/1800Z 35.0N 138.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  10/1800Z 41.9N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

FORECASTER POWELL