WTPA42 PHFO 061450

TCDCP2



HURRICANE OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP072015

500 AM HST TUE OCT 06 2015



AN 1131Z GPM PASS PROVIDED A TIMELY LOOK THROUGH THE THICK CANOPY

OF CLOUDS OVER OHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER OR LLCC...WHICH HAD A DISTINCT EYEWALL FEATURE...WAS EVIDENT

IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. THE 85 GHZ CHANNEL ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL

CENTER...WHICH APPEARED TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE

LLCC. THE LATEST ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS

AROUND 2 KT ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.5/55 KT AT JTWC...TO

4.0/65 KT AT PHFO AND SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS

4.2/70 KT. WE HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY BASED ON THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THIS MAKES OHO THE

SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2015 SEASON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/11 KT...AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS

NORTHWEST OF OHO. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN CLOSER TO

THE SYSTEM...IT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS

BEEN NORTHEAST OF OHO. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. THE FORWARD MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST

TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGING TO

THE LEFT...AND ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION...TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE

LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THE

VICINITY OF OHO STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH GRADUALLY INCREASES. UNTIL THAT OCCURS...OHO

WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. BY 36 TO

48 HOURS...OHO WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES...AT

THE SAME TIME THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. WE HAVE FORECAST

THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR BY DAY 3...WITH OHO

DISSIPATING BY DAY 4.



THE FINAL AIRCRAFT MISSION BY THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE

SQUADRON THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CANCELED SINCE

OHO NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE A VIABLE THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS. THOSE OF US WHO LIVE IN HAWAII GREATLY APPRECIATE THE

EFFORTS OF THOSE WHO FLEW THE EARLIER MISSIONS...AS WELL AS THE

FLIGHTS BY THE NOAA G-IV...IN THE VICINITY OF OHO WHILE WE WERE

DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL THREATS THIS SYSTEM MIGHT HAVE POSED TO

THE ALOHA STATE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/1500Z 15.3N 151.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  07/0000Z 16.7N 150.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  07/1200Z 20.0N 147.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  08/0000Z 25.1N 145.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  08/1200Z 30.5N 142.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  09/1200Z 43.0N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON