WTPA42 PHFO 062108

TCDCP2



HURRICANE OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP072015

1100 AM HST TUE OCT 06 2015



A LARGE AREA OF COLD...DENSE OVERCAST COVERED THE CENTER OF OHO BUT

EXTRAPOLATION FROM A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES ALLOWED REASONABLE

CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES WERE 4.0/65 KT FROM SAB AND PGTW AND 4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO.

THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 4.3/72 KT. I HAVE INCREASED THE

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THESE

SATELLITE ESTIMATES.



THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST.

A DEEP NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TROUGH REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE

HURRICANE. THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS

TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CARRY OHO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH STEADILY

INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT TRACK...WHICH HAS BEEN

COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...OPC......REMAINS

CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.



UW-CIMSS SHOWED 8 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...FROM THE

SOUTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWED 8 KT OF VWS FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH

ONLY MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...AND THE SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURE...SST...27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS...OHO IS FORECAST TO

WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...THE SST WILL

DROP RAPIDLY WHILE VWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND

INCREASE RAPIDLY IN MAGNITUDE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH OPC...I HAVE

FORECAST EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR WITHIN 72 HOURS...WITH

OHO DISSIPATING WITHIN 96 HOURS.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/2100Z 16.6N 150.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  07/0600Z 18.7N 148.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  07/1800Z 23.5N 146.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  08/0600Z 29.0N 144.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  08/1800Z 35.0N 140.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  09/1800Z 48.0N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON