WTPA42 PHFO 070900

TCDCP2



HURRICANE OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP072015

1100 PM HST TUE OCT 06 2015



THE DISTINCT EYE OF OHO IS EMBEDDED IN A RING OF COLD OVERCAST

CLOUDS OVER THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT

DESPITE STRONG SOUTHERLY ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE

VICINITY...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE 13 KT ACCORDING TO SHIPS

AND MORE THAN 30 KT BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS GUIDANCE. THE LATEST

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND JTWC

ARE 5.0/90 KT...WHILE SAB IS 5.5/102 KT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE

UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE IS 4.6/80 KT. SINCE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF OHO

HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WE WILL INCREASE THE

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/25 KT...WHICH IS THE RESULT OF STEERING BY

A DEEP NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH LOCATED

WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING

FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

TRANSPORTING OHO RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH STEADILY

INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. DESPITE THIS RAPID MOTION...THE FORECAST

MODELS ARE IN AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE

WEST AND ACCELERATED COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE

ADJUSTMENTS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT...AS WELL AS

THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



OHO IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ OF AROUND 27C.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE HURRICANE ACROSS DECREASING

VALUES OF SST AND REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT /OHC/ ACCORDING TO THE

MOST RECENT GUIDANCE FROM CIRA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE

SST AND OHC DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER THAT. AT THE SAME TIME...

SHEAR IMPARTED BY THE DEEP TROUGH WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE

VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW

OF OPPORTUNITY FOR OHO TO INTENSITY SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT. AFTER

THAT...OHO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...THEN

GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. MORE RAPID

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH OHO EXPECTED TO BE

A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE WEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE

AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETED BY DAY 2. THIS LATEST

INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND SHIPS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0900Z 20.4N 147.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  07/1800Z 24.4N 145.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  08/0600Z 30.5N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  08/1800Z 37.5N 139.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  09/0600Z 45.5N 135.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON