WTPA42 PHFO 080326

TCDCP2



HURRICANE OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP072015

500 PM HST WED OCT 07 2015



SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD...HIGH TOPS THAT HAD COVERED THE

CENTER OF OHO HAVE BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST

REVEALING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 4.0/65 KT FROM JTWC AND

4.5/77 KT FROM HFO. SAB JUDGED THE SYSTEM TO BE EXTRATROPICAL WITH

NO DVORAK ANALYSIS POSSIBLE. I HAVE SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 75

KT.



STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...CONTINUES OVER OHO. UW-CIMSS

SHOWED AN EXTREMELY HIGH VWS OF 49 KT FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE SHIPS

DATA SHOWED 42 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SST IS DOWN TO 24

DEGREES CELSIUS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE

NEXT 24 HOURS AS OHO STARTS TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

HOWEVER...ENERGY FROM A DIGGING JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO CAUSE

THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. IN

COLLABORATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...OPC...WE HAVE

FORECAST OHO TO BE POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. AS OHO

BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND AND BECOME

ASYMMETRIC...EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER OUT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE

SYSTEM.



THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. OHO IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE RACING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST GUIDED BY STEERING

FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE

FORECAST TRACK SHOWS OHO CROSSING EAST OF 140W INTO THE AREA OF

RESPONSIBILITY OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...NHC...IN MIAMI

FLORIDA AROUND 18 HOURS FROM NOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NHC MAY TAKE

OVER RESPONSIBILITY FOR FORECASTS ON OHO BEFORE IT BECOMES

EXTRATROPICAL. WHEN THE SYSTEM DOES BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IT WILL

BECOME THE RESPONSIBILITY OF OPC AND WILL BE COVERED BY THE OPC HIGH

SEAS FORECASTS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0300Z 30.5N 144.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  08/1200Z 35.4N 142.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  09/0000Z 42.0N 137.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  09/1200Z 51.0N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  10/0000Z 56.0N 137.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON