WTPS31 PGTW 152000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 001//

REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141921 OCT 15//

AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   151800Z --- NEAR 12.1S 177.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 177.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   160600Z --- 12.4S 176.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   161800Z --- 13.2S 175.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   170600Z --- 14.4S 172.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 15 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   171800Z --- 16.5S 170.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

152100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 177.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM NORTH OF

SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS

A PERSISTENT BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED

LLCC THAT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) OVER THE

PAST 12 HOURS. A 151604Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS THE

TIGHTLY WRAPPED, COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF DEEP

CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 151309 RSCAT PASS

INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM CENTER WHILE

DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REMAIN AT 2.0.

THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH

GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RSCAT IMAGE

AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND HEDGED ON THE

HIGHER END. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT

CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD

OUTFLOW. TC 02P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER

NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF

45 KNOTS AS VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTER THAT TC

02P WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS

ALONG TRACK. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT;

HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RECENT QS MOTION OF THE SYSTEM THERE IS

CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT

WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND

162100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON

WRNCEN 141921 OCT 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW

141930).//