WTPS31 PGTW 170900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 004//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 173.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 173.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   171800Z --- 18.5S 171.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   180600Z --- 20.8S 170.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 172.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST-

NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A

PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING

CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 170316Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE

IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH LIMITED

CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH

HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 35

KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND

REFLECTS THE CURRENT WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SEEN IN THE ABOVE

IMAGERY. TC 02P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. TC

02P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL

RIDGE TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO

MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGH VWS AND

COOLING SSTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,

LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT

172100Z.//