WTPS51 PGTW 170900 WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 151017073958 2015101706 02P TWO 004 01 225 15 SATL 020 T000 161S 1732E 035 T012 185S 1713E 035 T024 208S 1707E 030 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 173.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 173.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.5S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.8S 170.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 172.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 170316Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE CURRENT WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SEEN IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY. TC 02P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. TC 02P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGH VWS AND COOLING SSTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 172100Z.// 0215101300 99S1744E 30 0215101306 116S1744E 30 0215101312 133S1747E 30 0215101318 144S1752E 30 0215101400 141S1761E 30 0215101406 128S1762E 30 0215101412 116S1756E 30 0215101418 123S1757E 30 0215101500 123S1771E 30 0215101506 124S1775E 30 0215101512 123S1777E 30 0215101518 121S1778E 35 0215101600 122S1776E 35 0215101606 131S1771E 35 0215101612 134S1764E 35 0215101618 142S1753E 40 0215101700 151S1743E 35 0215101706 161S1732E 35